Raising Twenty Billion: Reducing our Meat Consumption

Two summers ago, I was eating a burger when a thought popped into my head: where had this meat come from? Never before had I properly thought about this or what impact my food choice could have on the environment. What I found surprised me, and is the main reason I decided to create this blog.

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After reading my previous post and if you watched Cowspiracy or The Atlantic video, you have seen how agriculture, particularly livestock agriculture, can negatively impact the environment. Here is an infographic I made to summarise the main points:

Sources: climate change, biodiversity, land use, waste, water use.

So, we know that the livestock farming necessary for us to eat meat (especially beef) isn’t doing great things for the environment. Quite how dramatic the impact is surprised me, and the fact that I hadn’t heard about it before was even more shocking. Al Gore had told me to take shorter showers, change my light bulbs and recycle, but failed to mention that eating less meat would have an even greater positive effect. In response, I decided to stop eating meat, and I haven’t touched another burger since.  

Springmann and colleagues found that if the world turned vegetarian by 2050, there would be many environmental, health and economic benefits: Food related emissions would drop by 60% (70% if we went vegan), world mortality would drop by between 6-10%, and 2-3% of GDP would be saved through a reduction in medical bills. There would also be an increase in available agricultural land (perhaps as much as 68%, which is currently used for livestock), and a reduction in pollution, water use and animal waste. Springmann's findings have been widely supported in the literature (for examples see this review,  this UK based-study and this US-based study).

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But... we should not all become vegetarians 

While there are these environmental, health and economic benefits, there are also some serious problems we would encounter if we all suddenly became vegetarians.

Environmentally, the consequences of the world turning vegetarian would largely be positive, however studies like Springmann's fail to appreciate regionally specific environmental problems that could arise in response to a change to vegetarianism. For example, Rosi and colleagues found some meat diets to be less environmentally damaging than vegetarian or vegan ones in Italy. Also, as raised by Ben Phalan in a BBC article on this topic, many areas of the world can only support livestock agriculture and if this was removed it is unlikely that it could be replaced with cropland (I recommend giving it a read here). For example, the article mentions how the conversion of land in the Sahel region in Africa from livestock pasture to croplands has led to a loss of productivity and desertification. Therefore, we need more detail on all of the consequences, both general and specific to different areas, before we decide to change our diets.

Source: BBC Future 'What would happen if the world suddenly went vegetarian?'

Health wise, there are many benefits, as well as risks, to eating meat. While Springmann showed that vegetarianism could have a positive impact on health, this requires appropriate rebalancing of the diet. This is not necessarily achievable in all areas of the world, particularly in populations suffering from malnutrition. For example, protein-energy malnutrition is a serious problem in the developing world and is best countered by an increase in animal products such as meat. Therefore, taking meat away from these populations could potentially cause a health crisis (as argued by Tim Benton in the BBC article). While meat consumption is growing in developing countries at a faster rate than in developed countries, the developing world still consumes far less meat on average. It seems unfair to impose the same expectations of vegetarianism on these countries that consume so much less meat and, in many cases, really need it.

An upper arm measurement being taken as part of a malnutrition screening programme. Source.

Economically, one of the most obvious problems we would encounter is what would happen to the people and animals involved in the livestock industry. Currently, 98% of the UK population and around 97% of the US population are meat eaters, with the average American consuming around 100kgs of meat a year. This creates a huge demand for meat. There are currently 1.3 billion people employed in livestock industries globally and 19 billion chickens, 1.4 billion cows and around 1 billion sheep and pigs (statistics from the FAO) existing to feed this demand. If we became vegetarians overnight we would run into some serious problems with the 1.3 billion newly-unemployed and handling the 20 billion livestock.

Sheep and goats in Somaliland, where the majority of people depend on livestock for their livelihood. Source.

Culturally, it is worth considering the implications a shift towards vegetarianism might have on different social groups. Meathooked, a book by Marta Zaraska, looks at our ‘obsession’ with meat and the role meat plays in cultures around the world. As we enter the holiday season, how would you feel about having Tofurky for Thanksgiving or Christmas?

Tofurky (a tofu turkey). Source.

However, while I do not think we should all become vegetarians over night, I do not think we can continue to produce and consume meat in the way we do today. The demand for meat is increasing as well as our population. Since the Great Acceleration meat production has more than tripled and from 1998 to 2030 meat consumption is projected to increase by 45% in the developing world and 14% in industrial countries. This means more land, water, waste, emissions, and biodiversity loss if we continue on our current path– something we cannot sustain.

Overall, it is clear that we need to reduce our meat consumption, but we also need a greater understanding, both regional and global, of the environmental, health, economic and cultural consequences a reduction in meat production would have on the world. In my next post I will briefly look at what you can do to help as an individual.