Feeding Ten Billion: The Future of Food

As we head into a new year tonight, and after last week’s futuristic post, I am inspired to look more deeply at the future of food. The world population is expected to increase to almost ten billion by 2050. Estimates predict that, with this population rise as well as increasing prosperity across the developing world (meaning a higher demand for meat and animal products), crop production will need to double by 2050. As I have discovered in previous weeks, the way we produce and consume food today is damaging to the environment and largely unsustainable. I want to know how we will change the ways we produce and consume food in order to feed the future.

Harvest in Kansas, Lab-grown burger, Kimbal Musk, UN statistics.

Two approaches to feeding ten billion:
In my research I came across two main approaches towards changing the way we produce food. One places faith in technology and the other in small scale farming. Barack Obama is one of many people emphasising the power of new technologies in feeding the future. These new technologies include lab-grown meat, genetically modified crops and mobile technologies that provide farmers with more data (such as weather forecasts and satellite images) so that they know what is best to plant where and when (this is also known as 'smart farming' or 'precision agriculture'). Geoengineering could also play a role in the future of food, for example through maximising the solar reflectivity of crop's leaves. Others, such as Richard Kock (mentioned in one of my first posts), support the idea that the future of farming requires a shift towards smallholder farms. This would involve consuming more local, organic food and is already responsible for 80% of the developing world’s food production.

The best of both?
After only seeing arguments for either high-tech or local farming, I came across a National Geographic article that argued it did not need to be one or the other but that the best of both types of farms could be blended to enable us to sustainably and effectively feed ten billion. A team of scientists came up with five key steps to achieve this:
  • Freeze agriculture’s foot print: no more deforestation or new land converted for agricultural use.
  • Grow more on farms we’ve got: using both new technology and old techniques.
  • Use resources more efficiently: again, by using techniques from both commercial and organic farming.
  • Shift diets: consume less meat and animal products or different types of meat.
  • Reduce waste: e.g. serve smaller portions, eat leftovers.
I think these steps are essential for our food future and I strongly recommend reading the article for more detail.


Left: Estela Cóndor, a Peruvian potato farmer, Right: The world’s largest indoor farm, Japan 

What’s healthy for the planet is healthy for us too:
As was highlighted at the symposium in which Rickard Kock lectured, food’s impact on health and disease also needs to change in the future. For example, I mentioned in my infographic that 2 billion people experience micronutrient malnutrition and another almost 2 billion adults are overweight or obese. Many people, such as Kimbal Musk, are working towards completely changing  the way we consume food. Musk aims to replace highly processed foods commonly found in US supermarkets with ‘real food’ (fresh, organic diets containing less meat). These kinds of diets would not only improve our health but the health of the planet too.


To summarise: There are many things we need to change in order to feed the planet in the future. We must use both new and old technologies to increase the efficiency of what we produce on the land we have, reduce waste and change our diets to be healthier and less meat-heavy. I hope you have enjoyed this look into the future, please let me know in the comments if you have any thoughts on this subject and have a very happy 2018!

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